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Wednesday, May 31. 2006
Go Francine
Democrat Francine Busby, campaigning to represent California’s 50th Congressional District. You Go, Girl!
While reading his post, it was apparent that 1: he does indeed have a lot of knowledge of congressional races; 2: he relies almost exclusively on what he “hears” not what he can “feel.”
“What the heck does that mean?”
It’s real simple. About 17 years ago former Massachusetts congressman and Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill said “All politics is local,” and though national figures like Chris Cillizza can get a fairly accurate appraisal of what’s going on around the country, to really know what’s going on in a particular district, you have to be here — or there, if you’re not “here” — to get a “feel” for the political atmosphere.
Of course, what O’Neill was talking about was directly related to political campaigning, not the sort of media meanderings of columnists and bloggers. If a candidate of any party — or no party — can touch all the right notes for the voters in that district, then he or she can win that congressional seat.
Taking issue with Cillizza is no small matter. He’s got the weight of covering politics in Washington for over 10 years plus the influence of the Washington Post backing his play, so I don’t step on his toes mindlessly, I do so lightly. He has a good track record and I have … my dear Brother Tony encouraging me to continue — an asset of far more significance than one could actually convey over the Internet.
The issue is his ranking of the top-20 congressional seats in play for November. The California 50th comes in at #18, far from the top of the list. Until last year, I was a constituent of that district, represented by Randy “Duke” Cunningham. Due to redistricting, the seats of Cunningham and Republican Duncan Hunter — who is now my current representative — became more solidified. In other words, if you’re a liberal (or Democrat) in either the California 50th or 52nd districts, your vote has just been nullified. It works the other way when Democrat districts are drawn as well.
My candidate to oppose Hunter in November will likely be Derek Casady, a progressive politico and local businessman who has been a journalist, legislative assistant and owner of an organic grocery store. He’s also a big proponent of energy independence and universal health care, although he has a different label for it.
Back to Francine Busby: My observation is that each week, as resentment against the Republican machine grows, naysayers keep adjusting their “Busby Can’t Win” message to fit the current political climate. This is a real sign Busby has a far better chance than the pundits and Republican leaders give Busby. If someone has to concoct a new reason someone can’t win, then two things are obvious: 1) the prognosticators are pulling for one candidate, in this case, Bilbray; and 2) the prognosticators don’t want to admit the challenger to their guy (Bilbray) has a very good chance of winning.
In fact, the NRCCC — National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee (Thanks god for acronyms) — has been pouring millions into the campaign for the California 50th since the days of the special election campaign, just about six weeks ago. The NRCCC has attack ads portraying Busby as a (surprise, surprise) tax-and-spend liberal and someone opposed to immigration reform (she supports, with some modifications, the president’s immigration policy).
What troubles me is that Busby and the NDCCC (National Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) don’t seem to be firing back with equal ferocity. While watching the San Diego Padres game on the Padres channel (a Cox Communications product) last night, I saw well over a half dozen of the NRCCC attack ads play during the game.
Two people at the Busby for Congress campaign headquarters said the campaign itself is buying advertising on the major local channels, enough so that the average viewer will see a Busby campaign ad an average of five times per day. The NDCCC has a pretty good ad for the campaign (Click Here, requires realPlayer) attacking Brian Bilbray’s record, especially his career as a lobbyist and that Bilbray accepted campaign contributions raised by “Duke” Cunningham.
The irony of the NRCCC attack ads is that they call Busby a “tax-and-spend” liberal, after their party ran up the largest deficit in U.S. history, eclipsing even President Reagan’s enormous deficits.
Less ironic, the immigration plan Francine Busby is promoting is coming from the Republican president, which most Republicans oppose; immigration is just their latest “wedge” issue. The Senate bill, which mirrors the president’s plan, was authored by Arizona Republican John McCain, no rookie at bucking the Republican Party message, which is: Paint all the undocumented Hispanic immigrants as criminals and all those conservative white voters will surely cast their vote for the Republican who opposes the guest worker program.
— Just a brief aside: Republicans who support the House plan to make felons of illegal aliens are now beginning to soften their belief that the illegal immigrants will “go home” if we make getting jobs here more difficult. But, James Sensenbrenner (R-WI) was on “Hardball” the other night and still believes the reverse exodus will occur as the Republicans have planned.
— On Bilbray’s campaign website, part of his “comprehensive” anti-immigration plan calls for building a fence – or wall – from the Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico (the fence is #3 on his ten-point immigration plan: “Construction of a border fence along the U.S.-Mexico border extending from the Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico, starting with the most heavily trafficked border crossings”). Even his fellow Republicans consider that idea ludicrous. The House plan calls for “only” 700 of the 1,951 miles have a wall constructed.
Francine Busby has a better than good chance of winning her district come Tuesday (June 6) when she goes head-to-head against Bilbray. If she wins, her victory will send shockwaves through the political world — only 26% of voters in the 50th are registered Democrats. And if Francine Busby can win the California 50th, the Republican Party even admits their chances in November of retaining control of the House and Senate will be slim. Of course, should Busby win, the Republican Party will have new spin on this election to try and minimize the effect and meaning of a Democrat representing “Duke” Cunningham’s district.
In true Republican fashion, the NRCCC is hoping the California 50th voters will reward their party for their corruption and mismanagement of government. I’m thinking the voters will see through that … but then, in 2000 I didn’t think many voters would cast a ballot for a presidential candidate who had trouble forming coherent sentences.
So, I’m taking the NDCCC’s approach, be happy for the lead in the polls — oh yeah, Busby is ahead in the polls — but keep hammering the Busby message and to some degree, the anti-Bilbray message. People were really turned off when Cunnigham’s crimes came to light when he pleaded guilty and with the state of current affairs — and considering our three branches of government are controlled by one political party that has driven our nation into a deep hole — even the voters of the usually conservative California 50th are looking for a change, and Brian Bilbray does not represent that change.
Build a wall 1,951 miles long — now that’s comedy!
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An update for my post of May 14:
The Da Vinci Code had a great opening week box office, collecting nearly $300,000,000.00 in worldwide ticket sales. Take that! You naysayers! Da Vinci was supplanted at the top this past weekend by X-Men: The Last Stand, but only in the United States. Worldwide, The Da Vinci Code is still the leader of the pack, even though it “only” took in $92,000,000.00 this past weekend. Ron Howard and Sony made their money and then some.
Of course, the naysayers want to point out it didn’t do as well as Mel Gibson’s Passion of the Christ, but let’s give credit to Mel’s movie, it’s one of the best grossing films of all time, with almost $700,000,000.00 in world-wide sales. And Mel gets a healthy chunk of that take. I guess his passion for Christ really paid off.
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